In the most general case the selection of a lower limit for the
design threat depends upon the asset being protected, the existence of
similar assets representing alternative targets in the vicinity of the
facility, and the degree of security provided at these alternative targets.
These alternative targets may exist in the civil sector off base or on the
military installation or activity itself. Data on the historical threat
precedent can be obtained from civil and military law enforcement officials.
Threat historical precedent data from such sources will likely represent
situations below the proper design threat. In general, the lower limit of
design threat is dependent upon the "supply" of the asset and the relative
"risk" for obtaining or destroying the asset to a given aggressor type.
The upper limit of the design threat severity depends upon the
perceived "degree of reward" resulting from a successful attack to the
facility relative to the risk, which in turn depends upon the "demand" for
the protected asset. This demand will vary with the objectives and degree of
motivation of the threat, for example, a theft by an unsophisticated criminal
as opposed to a dedicated terrorist threat against an AA&E storage magazine.
In this regard then, the design threat selection process must evaluate the
major aggressor types (criminal, terrorists, protestors, etc.) and asset
types. Each aggressor type has special motives against certain assets and
will favor only certain types of the attacks shown in Table 1.
Aggressor Characteristics. Aggressors are people who perform
hostile acts against military assets including equipment, personnel, or
operations. Possible aggressor objectives and how they relate to the general
categories of aggressor follow.
Possible aggressor objectives include:
Inflict injury or death on people
Destroy or damage facilities, property, equipment, or
Steal equipment, material, or information (espionage)
Create adverse publicity
Aggressor Types. DoD 5200.8-R categorizes the threat types into:
(1) Maximum, (2) Advanced, (3) Intermediate, and (4) Low, having the
characteristics shown in Figure 1. The threat examples shown in this figure
are as follows:
Criminals. Criminals fall into one of three possible groups
based on their degree of skill. Unsophisticated pilferers and thieves;
sophisticated, organized career criminals; and highly organized criminal
groups. The objective for all three is theft of assets.
Protestors. Protestors or demonstrators are considered to be
an intermediate threat if active or violent, a low threat if passive. Active
protesters include the two general groups of vandals/activists and extremist
protesters. Both groups are politically or issue-oriented and act out of