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 MIL-HDBK-1013/12
D-3.4
Likelihood of Aggression Procedure. Figure D-12
presents the process chart and procedure description for the
likelihood of aggression procedure. The likelihood that a given
aggressor will attempt to compromise an asset is evaluated using
the likelihood rating factors below. The factors measure the
value of the asset to the aggressor, the history of or potential
for incidents, and the vulnerability of the asset. Three
likelihood factors are used to evaluate each of these measures of
likelihood. The factors are weighted to emphasize vulnerability.
Generally, only the vulnerability of an asset can be changed
through security measures. The asset's value to an aggressor and
the history of or potential for events cannot be controlled.
Weighting the likelihood factors related to vulnerability allows
the user of this procedure to decrease risk through applying
security measures.
D-3.4.1
Required Information. The following information is
required for the likelihood of aggression procedure:
a) Asset visibility (very low visibility to very high
visibility).
b) Asset usefulness to aggressor.
c) Asset availability (widely available to only
available at this location).
d) Number of local incidents in the past (no incidents
to more than five incidents in the past 3 years).
e) Number of nearby incidents in the past (no incidents
to more than five incidents in the past 3 years).
f) Potential for future incidents (unlikely to very
likely).
g) Asset accessibility.
h) Effectiveness of law enforcement (extremely
effective to ineffective).
i) Deterrence factor of security.
j) Worksheets (see Appendix B):
1) Asset Value/Aggressor Likelihood (AVAL)
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